Things go from bad to worse for Starmer’s Labour government. Buyer’s remorse amongst the electorate rises to an epidemic. Unwilling to challenge the grotesque inequality of wealth and power in the country they govern, Labour ministers chart a course to make it worse.
But this is no time for schadenfreude amongst those want Scotland to take a different course.
The most remarkable feature of Labour’s plummeting support since last summer is just how little of it has come to the SNP. The party is up slightly, but only slightly. But in a first past the post contest with lots of parties, the one with the most support triumphs, even if it’s the choice of nowhere near half of the electorate. Just ask Keir Starmer.
This has led some to speculate that an SNP victory is now possible in next year’s Scottish general election. Some amateur psephologists predict results with the same misplaced optimism that infuses barroom pundits when they explain how the national football team can still qualify for the world cup despite a run of poor performances.
Possible, not probable. And besides, we need to be better than just not as shite as the other lot. So how does the SNP win an election convincingly? This is a question that ought to concern not only party members but everyone who wants Scotland to have the choice of self-government.
First, we need to remind ourselves what parties are for.
I think I upset Peter Bell at a conference in Edinburgh last week organised by the Independence Forum for Scotland when I refused a flyer for his new party. He suggested that I ought to be interested in discussing policy and open to new ideas. He misses the point. I will enjoy discussing policy until the cows come home, but that is not what political parties are for.
Parties exist to promote a collective interest not just by advocacy but by taking political power and using the mechanisms of a state to deliver change. In our case they are there to act on behalf of all those who believe that this country should be independent and in charge of its own affairs. At elections, they have the chance through collective action called voting to make those views influence the rules and structures of our everyday lives.
The more united a group of people are, the more effective their collective action. Divided campaigns do not win, even if the splits shear off slices at the edges rather than cleave through the centre.
How we can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is well illustrated by the Scottish parliament electoral system. Even after a quarter of a century how the system works is still widely misunderstood. Many people believe the regional list vote is a second preference, an opportunity to indicate who you would like to be elected if your first choice didn’t make it. It just isn’t.
The balance of parties in the parliament is decided by the list vote alone. Rather than being a second vote it is in practise your primary choice. There are sixteen seats elected in each region, nine by first past the post at constituency level and seven on the list. But how many of the sixteen each party gets is decided only by the support they get on the regional vote. It’s a confusing system that ought to be replaced but it what we have.
Broadly speaking, to get one of the sixteen seats you need to get a sixteenth of the votes – over 6%. Anything less, you get nothing.
Voting in the Alba leadership contest starts today. With the greatest of respect to all involved, does it matter? A party which gets one or two percent of the vote cannot increase the representation of Scottish independence in the parliament, it can only decrease it by lowering the share of the vote for the SNP. That’s the system.
There is now a significant section of the Scottish electorate who say they want Scotland to be independent but do not vote for any party. They cannot see how the action of voting makes independence happen. The SNP needs to explain how the two things are connected. We need a plan to deal with Supreme Court dismissals and Westminster intransigence. Without it these people are not coming back.
But this is a two-way street. In working out that plan we need all those who are already politically engaged to unite to maximise our collective strength.
I’ll leave the Scottish Greens out of the equation as whilst they support independence it is not a core belief of the party, and they draw support from many who do not.
But anyone for whom political independence is their most important thing needs to join the SNP. It will be an unpalatable message for many. Indeed, the umbrage taken by some outside the SNP at the suggestion they join may be matched by the concern and annoyance of some running the party that they might do just that.
There is a need now for a new spirit of tolerance and compromise. Remember that many of our fellow citizens remain unconvinced of the merits of setting up a new country. The role of an independence party is to combine representation those who believe with persuasion of those who do not. We can only do that effectively if we are united.