Today it happens. The second Trump presidency begins. More organised, we are told, than the last one. His team of billionaires ready to hit the ground running. The new American oligarchy.
Amid all the belligerence and bombast, the driving mission is clear. America first. Which means the rest of the world second. We all hold our breath, try to adjust and work out ways to survive the next four years.
As the year unfolds, we shall see what Trump’s foreign policy has in store for the world. Standing up for the human rights of others is unlikely to make the cut.
Undoubtedly this has a populist appeal at home, but abroad it will do great damage to the reputation of the world’s only superpower. The most powerful and richest country in the world seeking yet more riches and more power is not a good look.
What does this mean the war in central Europe, raging now for nearly three years? Trump proclaims he will stop World War Three and bring peace to Ukraine “in a day”. Remarkable utterances even for one so lacking in self-doubt as the new president.
There is a real fear that Trump’s proposed peace will throw Ukraine and the Ukrainians under a bus, forcing them effectively to surrender to Putin by cutting off military support.
It would be easily done. In the first two and half years of the war the US provided more than $62Bn in direct military aid, mostly hardware. That’s more than the rest of the world combined. A drop of even ten percent would be challenging for European countries to make up, and a serious cutback would spell the end for Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself.
All wars are brutal and horrific. This one more than most. In recent years we have seen wars portrayed as computer games, with the combatants disengaged for one another. Israel’s destruction of Gaza and its civilian population an extreme example where bombs are dropped on schools, housing estates and hospitals by remote and unseen operators in bunkers hundreds of miles away.
There is nothing remote about the war in Ukraine. In spite of ordnance being controlled by sophisticated computers, there are aspects of this war reminiscent of the continent’s conflicts more than a hundred years before. Thousands of conscripts face each other dug into the earth and slogging for weeks on end to gain a few hundred metres of territory. Getting blown to bits in the process.
The killing is immediate, raw, bloody and never-ending. President Zelenskyy recently put a figure on his country’s losses; 43,000 dead and 370,000 injured. But truth is always the first casualty. So, the deaths will be more than this. And by all accounts Russian losses are twice those of Ukraine.
Probably there are well over one million dead or maimed for life in this conflict. Every one of them a human tragedy, somebody’s child.
Stopping the killing should be a priority for everyone. There has to be a ceasefire and a start to negotiations to both end the war and then to begin the process of building a lasting peace. To be clear there is no question that Russia is the aggressor here and the new US president should use all his power to force Russia to stop.
As this year unfolds, the central principle that every democrat should advocate is the right of the people of Ukraine to choose their own future. If a permanent solution requires redrawing borders that is a judgement that only Ukrainians can make. It is not one that should be forced upon them.
We also need to offer our solidarity to the mass of the Ukrainian people in ensuring that what happens next does not strengthen the hand of those who would exploit them. There are worrying proposals to change the country’s labour laws, including reducing or removing rights for workers employed by foreign companies. Could this be western corporations eyeing up an opportunity to have a new source of cheap labour nearer to home?
The trade union backed Ukraine Solidarity Campaign is clear that we need to stand with the people of Ukraine not just against the current attacks but in making sure their sacrifice achieves a democratic country where rights are protected, and wealth is shared. They will need to win the peace once this war ends.
Most of all, though, there is no secure future for Ukraine as a fortified eastern front for NATO. It is distressing that now a quarter of the way through this century we are further from removing tension and conflict in Europe than we were at the end of the last one.
When the Soviet Union did represent a fundamental ideological challenge to capitalism, there was still a process of détente, discussion and actual disarmament. The Soviets are long gone. Sadly, so are peace talks.
A new narrative is needed. One that talks of peace and reconciliation in Europe, that insists to the Russian people that we respect their right to determine their own future too.
Outside of the west, most of the rest of the world is ambivalent about Putin’s Russia, often regarding us as more of a threat. We need a global persuasion exercise for that to change. Most importantly, we need to send the message to ordinary Russians that we mean them no harm. If we can do that it will strengthen the hand of Russian democrats and prevent this Putin being` succeeded by another.